Interview with Seth Godin about “The Dip”, Part 1
NOTE: this post is part #1 of an interview with Seth Godin about his new book, The Dip. In this post, Seth is answering questions asked by Josh Kaufman. You can read part #2 of the interview here.
The new Personal MBA manifeso and reading list will have a heavy emphasis on mental models: simple concepts that represent how the world really works. Mental models are powerful and flexible tools that can help you understand a wide variety of situations, and collecting useful models is one of the primary purposes of self-education.
Seth Godin’s new book, The Dip
“The Dip”
The Dip is a mental model that represents the path to “best in the world” status for everything worth doing. You start out with a lot of energy, making huge strides toward your goal. You’re firing on all cylinders. You’re excited and motivated.
Then you hit the wall.
Things get tough. You start to tackle the less sexy aspects of your goal, like taking organic chemistry, doing your business’ taxes, refining your product for the 5126th time, writing your doctoral thesis, or studying for the bar exam. Progress is slow and painful. You’re tempted to give up, and that’s exactly what most people do. But you see the future beyond the Dip, and you want it, so you press on.
On the other side of the Dip, however, things are bright and sunny. You’re among the best in the world. Competition is limited, and because you’re at the top of the heap, you’re in high demand. You’ve built a significant “moat” between yourself and others who would like to be in your shoes. The time you spent pushing through the Dip was worth it, and you’ll continue to reap the rewards until someone (maybe you) pushes through an even bigger Dip that changes the game yet again.
“The Cul-de-Sac”
The Cul-de-Sac is a model that represents things that ultimately aren’t worth doing. You grind your way forward, giving a lot but gaining precious little ground. Your current path is literally a “dead end” that won’t lead you where you want to go, but it’s tempting to keep plodding along. Drastic change is scary, and it’s easy to stay stuck in comfortable mediocrity, so most people do.
In this handy little book, Seth argues that the Dip is your friend if you believe you can be the best in the world at something, and your eternal foe if you don’t. Anticipating the Dip and mustering the force of will to propel yourself through it gives you a significant competitive advantage over people who can’t cut it - the Dip weeds out the less dedicated competition. On the flip side, if you can’t be the best in the world, the Dip will ensure you suffer the indignity of endless mediocrity until you get the picture and quit. The value at the top is created by scarcity, and the Dip is directly responsible for creating that scarcity.
Seth’s advice is pretty simple: quit the dead ends and invest in the Dips. Immediately identify the areas of your life or business where you’re in a cul-de-sac and quit without reservation or remorse, freeing your time and energy to attack the Dips worth conquering. Before attacking a Dip, take a realistic assessment of yourself and decide whether or not you have the skills and determination to persevere through the hard times. If you don’t, do something else. As Seth mentions several times in the book: “If you’re not going to be #1, you might as well quit now.”
For additional information about The Dip
I recently asked Seth a few questions about The Dip
JOSH: The advice you give in your book is to stick with the Dips that are likely to pan out (the ones that will make you the best in the world), quit the Dips that won’t, and immediately quit Cul-de-Sacs to focus your resources. How should a smart person choose which Dips to lean into and which ones to walk away from?
SETH: Ah, well that’s the art of it, isn’t it?
It’s sort of like asking, “what’s remarkable” about the Purple Cow theory. The answer is, I DON’T KNOW! But I think you do. I think deep down, each individual can see a little about around the corner, do a little bit to understand why they are having so much trouble getting stuck.
That said, it’s also possible for an outsider to take a look at what you’re doing and see what can be measured and what can’t, what’s realistic and what isn’t. Long-shots make good movies-of-the-week, but it’s not necessarily the way to build a long term career.
JOSH: I’m particularly intrigued about the competitive advantage of breaking through big Dips. (I think you refer to them as “Valleys of Death”.) Since the Dip weeds out non-committed competitors, once you make it through, the Dip serves as a deterrent to future competition. Should businesspeople (particularly entrepreneurs) actively seek out ideas that are worthwhile but insanely difficult?
SETH: I think the challenge is to cross a smaller Dip and then work like mad to build the Dip behind you bigger. The Valley of Death that Microsoft built, for example, kicked in AFTER they had the operating system in their favor.
JOSH: How does the Dip apply to traditional business education and business self-education?
SETH: The bet behind the University of Chicago MBA is this: it’s the Dip. If you manage to get in, manage to pay for it and manage to graduate, boom, you’re on the other side. Now you’re going to be rich and happy for a long time.
What’s happened? The Dip hasn’t gotten bigger (like the Valley of Death) - it’s gotten smaller. It’s worth less. It’s a huge opportunity cost in exchange for… what exactly? If you want to be a consultant or an investment banker, it’s still an essential Dip. But if you want to run a factory or a non-profit or start a business, the Dip that’s represented by the degree (not the education or the network, I’m just talking about the degree) is slim indeed.
I think instead, getting the network and the education (without the very expensive diploma) frees you up to accomplish some amazing things, to work your way through Dips that MBAs are too busy to get to.
JOSH: Everyone who begins the Personal MBA quickly encounters the Dip. It’s easy to buy in to the idea and get excited about reading the first few books, but before long, tackling the next book becomes an uphill battle. Assuming a person knows why they’re completing the PMBA and believes doing so will make them exceptional at what they do, do you have any tips for staying motivated when the going is rough?
SETH: Well, that’s one of the great side effects of paying tuition. It forces the mind to focus. So why not put $15,000 in an escrow account (borrow it if you have to) and instruct, in writing, a lawyer to donate all the money to the George W. Bush library, the Flying Spaghetti Monster Defense Fund (or some other cause you’re not excited about) if you don’t finish the curriculum. That’ll create an external force that will keep you pushing when it feels a lot easier to quit.
(Josh’s aside: this is the primary reason I’m setting up PMBA coaching! It’s easier to keep going when you have someone providing a bit of external motivation.)
JOSH: In your opinion, what would help the Personal MBA break through the business education “Conceptual Dip” to be the absolute best business self-education resource in the world?
SETH: I think what’s missing from the Personal MBA is easy transferability. In other words, it’s not trusted yet. Safety-seeking managers don’t trust themselves to hire people with a PMBA. The good news is that every day, more people with a PMBA end up in hiring positions, or end up doing great things… so it is spreading, and it’s getting more powerful every day.
Thanks, Seth!
Now it’s your turn!
Seth has graciously agreed to take questions from PMBA members, so submit your questions in the comments below. Seth and I will pick the best 2-3 questions, and the lucky question-askers will get a reply from Seth plus a free copy of The Dip
Related Posts on the PMBA Blog
Interview with Seth Godin about “The Dip”, Part 2
Seth Godin on Higher Education
Recommended Reading: Interview with John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods
18 Comments, Comment or Ping
Roger Anderson PhD
As a part of my research for a chapter in my business book series, “Maps for Modern Magellans,” I often ask successful entrepreneurs to share a survivor story. To explain how they overcame those events where it appears the whole world has conspired against you. (To use the roadway analogy here, we would say that the bridge collapsed just as you were about to step on to it. Now what do you do?) The stories on occasion will curl your hair, if you have any. The resolutions are always educational if not inspirational, and usually involve relationships that were cultivated long before the event occurred or help was required.
The Question:
Seth, and Josh, what was the worst catastrophe or bad day you ever faced and how did you deal with it?
May 10th, 2007
Roger Anderson PhD
BTW - the killer class in life science is not O Chem. as Seth argues in his Dip manifesto, it’s P Chem.: Physical Chemistry. O Chem. just requires memorization, where P Chem. has heavy-duty calculus, and why I got my PhD in Biology and not Chemistry.
May 10th, 2007
Zoltan Hajnacs
Hi Seth,
I will argue that choosing the right metric is not always possible.
I find the aspect of meticulously measuring your progress controversial, the problem being in the choice of the right metric. Assuming you want to achieve economic success with your project, metrics of this are numbers of (repeat) customers, revenue, etc. I will call them “market metrics” as they measure things external to your organization. I argue that measuring these, while they certainly capture your success, does not help you in achieving success. Contrast them to what I will call “internal metrics”, such as the number of product revisions you make for your vacuum cleaner or the number of man-hours you put into learning how to sing (26 and a half and counting), that have everything to do with your organization and nothing with your customers. I will also argue, that measuring these “internal metrics” does not help you much in achieving success either.
Isn’t measuring “market metrics”, in some sense, like pleasing Wall Street, just with customers instead of investors? If you focus yourself on your number of customers, your product development will inevitably look very different than if you focus on your vision. It could encourage you to take shortcuts that are lucrative in the near term, but that make you unable to keep a strong position in the long term. A great example for this is mentioned in an interview with Joel Spolsky (six minute podcast: http://www.podtech.net/scobleshow/technology/1415/editors-choice-best-of-joel-spolskys-interview) where adding a new feature would have most probably brought his sales up, but then developers would have started to work their way around his system, a gloomy prospect in the long term for any ISV.
Measuring “internal metrics” has caveats in it as well, precisely for what it is: It enables you to focus on your product or service without listening to the outside world. While that may enable you to come up with something extraordinary, it is just as well possible that you will come up with something nobody wants - for those of us who don’t have a Phaedrus-like sense of QUALITY, our own direction might just be something very different from what the market is willing to embrace. I’m not arguing for more focus groups here - they might bury your revolutionary idea in committee-land - but I still think that working in isolation (where isolation can also mean a whole organization, not just a single person) is something that can cause you to hit a dead end while all your metrics are shouting “go”.
I think the problem boils down to going after your head vs. seeking mass appeal. And here’s my question: Do you think this can be tackled effectively by paying attention to “internal metrics” as well as to “market metrics”? Don’t you think that dilutes your focus so much that you won’t be able to accomplish anything? If it does, is the entrepreneur’s only choice to bet on the roulette of either one or the other?
Regard,
Zoltan
May 10th, 2007
Nigel
Yep, I think this is great!
This may sound simple - like people are attracted to like
Like minds are attracted to like
Like thoughts are attracted to like
If you are interested, there is more at: NigelPendrigh. Com/Interview
You have to be what you want to attract and I would recommend that you hang out with people who have experience of ‘the dip’ and ‘the cul de sac’ and can help you differentiate which applies to you at any time
May 10th, 2007
Benjamin Atkinson
Can you provide me an example of a company that crossed the Dip, dug it deeper to make it harder on competitors and ended up being outflanked by a competitor? I see risk in focusing too intently on the Dip I have crossed, to the exclusion of other opportunities/threats.
Thanks.
May 10th, 2007
Ryan J. Parker
How long is too long? Is it better to focus on getting through a dip that you can push through sooner rather than later, or is it best to try and push through the dip that might be years off? Assume, of course, that the dip that takes longer to push through has more risk involved, but an appropriate amount of reward for pushing through.
Depending on what you’re trying to do, being the best in the world can take a significant amount of time, and I’d like to hear your thoughts on how long is too long.
May 10th, 2007
Clive Scerri
Will Smith in The Pursuit of Happyness. In the interview with the Stock Broker firm he had to present himself wearing a vest. Well I guess it was how he managed to get a way with it that made the guys choose him.
I think the dip is not about taking the right decisions. I believe it’s all about handling the various events in your life to get them in line with your goal.
I made my dip four years ago - I was just 19. I decided to concentrate on my part time Customer Support work with BetOnMarkets.com instead of my first degree. Why? Because studying was boring.
My grade is a mess but it was enough for me to graduate. I am now the Internal Audit Manager for the company. Was it the right decision to take? Maybe not but half way through I had to make it work.
I guess the secret is to make sure that you are in control of your life. If the path you’ve taken in your life has been made by others, you can never make the dip. You have to Take Control. Am I right?
Clive
May 10th, 2007
Judy
Roger is right about P Chem….actually Physical Organic Chemistry was the worst class I ever took….
My question is how does someone separate their ego from their analysis? I see someone enamored of the idea of the dip who is actually caught in a Cul de Sac…..but is not ready to hear that truth. Perhaps the perseverence is less of a issue than the discernment as to where you are right now…in a Cul de Sac or a Dip? The ego could mislead. It is easier sometimes to persevere than to admit you picked the wrong road.
May 10th, 2007
Steve Olson
Seth and Josh,
I’ve always been fascinated with the “dip” but I’ve never heard it called that until now. Every successful entrepreneur has them. The question is… how do we identify them for what they are as opposed to cul-de-sacs? I think a good rule is that “dips”occur while aggressively pursuing a measurable goal, but “cul-de-sacs” occur as result of failing to set measurable goals. For example: One may set the goal of finding employment as a network administrator. It is measurable and a you will likely experience a small dip on the way. But if you fail to set more measurable goals for yourself after gaining the network administrator position you are on a cul-de-sac. A microcosm of Samsara - a rat in a cage. The cul-de-sac is much like the “insanity” concept – doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. The problem with the insanity of the cul-de-sac is identifying when we are on it. It is impossible to observe yourself objectively and the cul-de-sac gives us the illusion of stability and safety, so maybe a good rule to use to identify if you are on a cul-de-sac is: How safe and secure do you feel right now? How long have you felt this way? If you’ve felt safe and secure for a long time, maybe it’s time to step out of your cell.
May 11th, 2007
Olena
Seth,
What was your (biggest) personal dip, and what would you have done differently in your life had you thought of the dip theory earlier?
Thanks!
May 11th, 2007
Brad Trnavsky
Josh,
I just recently found your blog and started reading your feed. I have to say I love it! I Have my, MBA, but find a nugget of knowledge worth reading every time I read you blog. I look forward to reading your future posts and I am sure I will be linking to you from my own blog often!
-Brad
Jun 22nd, 2007